Powell Less Sure About Obama 2012

The former defense secretary also says Martin Luther King Jr. would be "disappointed" in the state of American politics.  

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell made headlines in 2008 when he crossed party lines to publiclyendorse Barack Obama’s presidential bid. Back then, he described Obama as a “transformational figure,” but now, he says, he’s unsure whom he’ll support in 2012.

“I haven’t decided who I’m going to vote for,” Powell said Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “Just as was the case in 2008, I am going to watch the campaign unfold. In the course of my life I have voted for Democrats, I have voted for Republicans, I have changed from one four-year cycle to another. I’ve always felt it my responsibility as a citizen to take a look at the issues, examine the candidates, and pick the person that I think is best qualified for the office of the president in that year. And not just solely on the basis of party affiliation,” he said.

And, like many Republicans, he appears to be underwhelmed by his party’s current presidential contenders. There are some “interesting candidates” in the field, he said, but “let’s see if anybody else is going to join, and we’ve got a long way to go.”

Powell, who served under President George H. W. Bush as the nation’s first African-American secretary of state, also discussed what Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. means to him. He had been stationed in Vietnam when King delivered his famous “I Have a Dream" Speech, and was preparing to return there when the civil rights leader was killed, and his wife and children were living in Birmingham, Alabama during that racially charged period.

“And what Dr. King meant to me was that this second revolution, this second civil war was underway. It was time now to meet the dream set out for us by our founding fathers,” said the general, who helped raise more than $1 million for the King memorial. “And what Dr. King did was not just free African-Americans. He freed all of America. He caused us — through his sacrifice and his service, he caused America — to look at a mirror of itself; look in that mirror and what do you see? Is this who we want to be? Is this the inspiration we want to be to the rest of the world? And the answer was no.”

Powell also said that if King were alive today he would be disappointed by how Washington politics have become so bitterly partisan and uncivil that it’s nearly impossible for lawmakers to reach compromise, and that he’d be “raging” over the social inequities in American society, particularly in the area of education. He’d also hold African-American children accountable for ensuring that they take advantage of the educational opportunities that are available to them.

“He'd also be chewing them out a bit, saying, you know, you've got work harder to get your education. We have to bring back intact families so we can raise children in loving, intact families. And he would also be on the world stage talking about poverty and inequality throughout the world,” Powell said. “He was a man who transcended the African-American experience. He became an American icon, and he became an icon to the rest of the world.”

Source: http://www.bet.com/news/politics/2011/08/29/powell-less-sure-about-obama-2012.html

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Obama Wins Reelection In 2012. Seriously.

We at Ology know you Democrats don’t have a ton to crow about these days. We know, besides special House elections, there is only bad news for liberals and progressives. Obama is becoming less and less popular despite everything he tries, the economy is stagnant and natural disasters are testing our economic weakness to the breaking point. Well, we dug up some good news for you Democrats and here it is: Obama wins reelection in 2012… No, seriously.

Obama has some troubles, but none he cannot overcome.

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POLITICO is silly, nakedly biased

Gingrich, Surviving Savage Attacks that Exist Only in his Mind

Political Professor and never wrong political prognosticator, Allan Licthman, says Obama has this 2012 thing locked.

Lichtman’s book, “The Keys to the White House,” which is a quick read and I recommend it to all of you interested in the history of presidential elections and electoral politics, identifies 13 keys to the presidency with “yes” or “no” questions. If six of these questions go against the incumbent, the incumbent loses. If it is less than six, the incumbent wins. End of story.

Lichtman has correctly predicted who would win and who would lose in every presidential election since 1984. He nailed George H. W. Bush’s 1992 loss to Bill Clinton at the height of Bush’s popularity in early 1991 following the defeat of Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Army and the withdrawal of their forces from occupied Kuwait.

Lichtman says, even at this early date, that he does not believe Obama has a credible chance of losing his reelection bid in 2012. “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman told U.S. News.

Here are those keys and how Obama stacks up:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than they did after the previous midterm elections. – Yeah, this one is a loss for the president. But, it’s early. Let’s keep going.

2. Contest: There is no contest for the incumbent party nomination. – Nope. There is definitely grumbling in the Democratic set but it's objectively hard to conceive of a major challenge to Obama for the Democratic nomination. The president wins.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the president. – Yep. Another win.

4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. – Well… yet to be seen. “significant” is probably the saving grace here. There has been a third and even fourth party candidate with some national stature in every election since 1992, so it’s a safe bet that there will be a third party candidate of some kind. How major a challenge that third party is to either party is debatable. But, Lichtman give this one to Obama so I will too. Win.

5. Short Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. – Lichtman gives this an “undecided” ranking, meaning that it is uncounted. Given the trends we are seeing it is hard to think that this is a growing economy. I know, officially the recession ended in 2009 and 2010 was the start of the recovery, but all that is Orwellian “new speak” compared to the reality on the ground. I’m inclined to give Obama a losing score on this point, but we’ll count our tallies later.

6. Long-Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. – Yeah, inherited or no, this economy blows and Obama will take it on the chin for it. Obama loses this one objectively.

7. Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. – Without question. Some of the most sweeping policy changes we’ve seen in a decade or more. Obama wins. (The popularity of those sweeping changes is not taken into account).

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest. – Obama wins this too. The Tea Party may have counted but its intensity has dissipated after the 2010 elections. Also, the Tea Party label is becoming less and less popular, signifying that this movement will not be “sustained” into 2012.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. – Lichtman gives this one to Obama. Although his assessment that “this administration has been squeaky clean,” is overly complimentary. I have not seen a “squeaky clean” administration in my lifetime and this is no exception. We’ll see how Cash for Firearms plays out… As that matures, however, it’s a win.

10. Foreign / Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. – Nothing significant. Big win for Obama.

11. Foreign / Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. – Oh yeah. Bin Laden, Libya… Obama win.

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. – Lichtman does not give this one to Obama. He cites the doctrine of “leading from behind,” in foreign affairs and in domestic policy debates as the problem. This one, despite expectations to the contrary in 2008, is a loss for Obama.

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. – This is a win for Obama. Unless Gen. David Patraeus jumps in, the GOP race is devoid of national heroes.

So how did this shape up? Well, Professor Lichtman’s score is: 8 wins for Obama, 4 losses and 1 abstention (undecided). That’s well short of the 6 keys needed for him to lose. So, Obama wins.

My assessment? … Well, Obama wins. Although, I came off the fence on the short – term economy question, but that only gets me to 8 wins for Obama and 5 loses. It’s a long way to 2012, but for the never-wrong Professor Allan Lichtman, it’s already in the bag.

Source: http://www.ology.com/politics/obama-wins-reelection-2012-seriously

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