Obama Wins Reelection In 2012. Seriously.

We at Ology know you Democrats don’t have a ton to crow about these days. We know, besides special House elections, there is only bad news for liberals and progressives. Obama is becoming less and less popular despite everything he tries, the economy is stagnant and natural disasters are testing our economic weakness to the breaking point. Well, we dug up some good news for you Democrats and here it is: Obama wins reelection in 2012… No, seriously.

Obama has some troubles, but none he cannot overcome.

Dems are Mad, but Not Mad Enough to Ditch Obama

POLITICO is silly, nakedly biased

Gingrich, Surviving Savage Attacks that Exist Only in his Mind

Political Professor and never wrong political prognosticator, Allan Licthman, says Obama has this 2012 thing locked.

Lichtman’s book, “The Keys to the White House,” which is a quick read and I recommend it to all of you interested in the history of presidential elections and electoral politics, identifies 13 keys to the presidency with “yes” or “no” questions. If six of these questions go against the incumbent, the incumbent loses. If it is less than six, the incumbent wins. End of story.

Lichtman has correctly predicted who would win and who would lose in every presidential election since 1984. He nailed George H. W. Bush’s 1992 loss to Bill Clinton at the height of Bush’s popularity in early 1991 following the defeat of Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Army and the withdrawal of their forces from occupied Kuwait.

Lichtman says, even at this early date, that he does not believe Obama has a credible chance of losing his reelection bid in 2012. “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman told U.S. News.

Here are those keys and how Obama stacks up:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than they did after the previous midterm elections. – Yeah, this one is a loss for the president. But, it’s early. Let’s keep going.

2. Contest: There is no contest for the incumbent party nomination. – Nope. There is definitely grumbling in the Democratic set but it's objectively hard to conceive of a major challenge to Obama for the Democratic nomination. The president wins.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the president. – Yep. Another win.

4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. – Well… yet to be seen. “significant” is probably the saving grace here. There has been a third and even fourth party candidate with some national stature in every election since 1992, so it’s a safe bet that there will be a third party candidate of some kind. How major a challenge that third party is to either party is debatable. But, Lichtman give this one to Obama so I will too. Win.

5. Short Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. – Lichtman gives this an “undecided” ranking, meaning that it is uncounted. Given the trends we are seeing it is hard to think that this is a growing economy. I know, officially the recession ended in 2009 and 2010 was the start of the recovery, but all that is Orwellian “new speak” compared to the reality on the ground. I’m inclined to give Obama a losing score on this point, but we’ll count our tallies later.

6. Long-Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. – Yeah, inherited or no, this economy blows and Obama will take it on the chin for it. Obama loses this one objectively.

7. Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. – Without question. Some of the most sweeping policy changes we’ve seen in a decade or more. Obama wins. (The popularity of those sweeping changes is not taken into account).

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest. – Obama wins this too. The Tea Party may have counted but its intensity has dissipated after the 2010 elections. Also, the Tea Party label is becoming less and less popular, signifying that this movement will not be “sustained” into 2012.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. – Lichtman gives this one to Obama. Although his assessment that “this administration has been squeaky clean,” is overly complimentary. I have not seen a “squeaky clean” administration in my lifetime and this is no exception. We’ll see how Cash for Firearms plays out… As that matures, however, it’s a win.

10. Foreign / Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. – Nothing significant. Big win for Obama.

11. Foreign / Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. – Oh yeah. Bin Laden, Libya… Obama win.

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. – Lichtman does not give this one to Obama. He cites the doctrine of “leading from behind,” in foreign affairs and in domestic policy debates as the problem. This one, despite expectations to the contrary in 2008, is a loss for Obama.

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. – This is a win for Obama. Unless Gen. David Patraeus jumps in, the GOP race is devoid of national heroes.

So how did this shape up? Well, Professor Lichtman’s score is: 8 wins for Obama, 4 losses and 1 abstention (undecided). That’s well short of the 6 keys needed for him to lose. So, Obama wins.

My assessment? … Well, Obama wins. Although, I came off the fence on the short – term economy question, but that only gets me to 8 wins for Obama and 5 loses. It’s a long way to 2012, but for the never-wrong Professor Allan Lichtman, it’s already in the bag.

Source: http://www.ology.com/politics/obama-wins-reelection-2012-seriously

Posted in: Discussion